Alliance Goods Transport Model - timeline modelling
TML improved the BasGoed model, which forecasts future freight transport demand in the Netherlands, by better integrating capacity constraints. We provided a roadmap for improvements to produce more realistic forecasts and to provide greater insight into the impact of capacity limits.
TML worked on improving BasGoed, the national model that forecasts future demand for freight transport in the Netherlands. BasGoed plays a crucial role in planning and policy-making for transport by road, rail, inland waterways, sea, and pipelines. The model analyses how freight flows are distributed across the various transport modes, based on factors such as transport costs and journey time.
A key assumption in BasGoed is that the chosen base year is representative of the general development of freight transport. In practice, however, every year is different and therefore not perfectly representative. Recent disruptions such as droughts, pandemics, chip shortages and wars have made it particularly difficult to select a single suitable base year. An alternative to a representative year is to calculate an average across several years. However, this raises the question of whether important information is being smoothed out.
This project aimed to describe time-series methods and to develop and test a preferred method that, on the one hand, could improve the base year and, on the other, would enable short-term forecasts to be made. We did this in stages. We began with an overview of possible methods and collected and analysed data by transport mode. We then examined the most promising methods in greater detail. This ultimately led to the selection of the method to be implemented in BasGoed.
In addition, we looked separately at long-term forecasts. Here, the focus was on better incorporating future developments, such as climate change. We carried out an exploratory analysis to identify leverage points or ‘model switches’. The main application here was the impact of low water levels on inland shipping.
