Alliance Goods Transport Model - baseline study
25049
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML led the project to update BasGoed with a new, representative baseline based on data from multiple years.
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML developed a current and representative baseline for BasGoed, a model used to analyse and forecast rail freight flows.
At the start of this project, BasGoed relied on a single base year (2018) as its starting point. However, due to exceptional circumstances in recent years—such as the pandemic, energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions—this year no longer reflected the present or future situation accurately. We therefore explored whether creating a baseline based on data from multiple years could provide a more robust foundation.
The project involved five key steps:
TML was responsible for data collection, project management, and running the models. The goal was to develop a more efficient and flexible process to keep BasGoed up to date and improve short- and medium-term forecasting.
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML developed a current and representative baseline for BasGoed, a model used to analyse and forecast rail freight flows.
At the start of this project, BasGoed relied on a single base year (2018) as its starting point. However, due to exceptional circumstances in recent years—such as the pandemic, energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions—this year no longer reflected the present or future situation accurately. We therefore explored whether creating a baseline based on data from multiple years could provide a more robust foundation.
The project involved five key steps:
- Taking inventory of available data sources
- Updating datasets and baseline matrices
- Applying timeline modelling to generate future scenarios
- Running the model with the updated baseline matrices
- Documenting the approach and findings
TML was responsible for data collection, project management, and running the models. The goal was to develop a more efficient and flexible process to keep BasGoed up to date and improve short- and medium-term forecasting.
