Alliance Goods Transport Model - baseline study
25049
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is leading the project to update BasGoed with a new, representative baseline based on data from multiple years.
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is working on developing a current and representative baseline for BasGoed, a model used to analyse and forecast rail freight flows.
Currently, BasGoed relies on a single base year (2018) as its starting point. However, due to exceptional circumstances in recent years—such as the pandemic, energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions—this year no longer reflects the present or future situation accurately. Therefore, we are exploring whether creating a baseline based on data from multiple years can provide a more robust foundation.
The project involves five key steps:
TML is responsible for data collection, project management, and running the models. The goal is to develop a more efficient and flexible process to keep BasGoed up to date and improve short- and medium-term forecasting.
Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is working on developing a current and representative baseline for BasGoed, a model used to analyse and forecast rail freight flows.
Currently, BasGoed relies on a single base year (2018) as its starting point. However, due to exceptional circumstances in recent years—such as the pandemic, energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions—this year no longer reflects the present or future situation accurately. Therefore, we are exploring whether creating a baseline based on data from multiple years can provide a more robust foundation.
The project involves five key steps:
- Taking inventory of available data sources
- Updating datasets and baseline matrices
- Applying timeline modelling to generate future scenarios
- Running the model with the updated baseline matrices
- Documenting the approach and findings
TML is responsible for data collection, project management, and running the models. The goal is to develop a more efficient and flexible process to keep BasGoed up to date and improve short- and medium-term forecasting.
