Environmental and climate impact Railway Vision 2040
22077
2023
TML mapped current and future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of vehicles in Belgium to evaluate the goals of the Belgian Rail Vision 2040. A scenario analysis with models developed in-house showed that rail is the most energy-efficient option, but that significant emission reductions are only feasible with a decrease in transport demand.
The Belgian Rail Vision 2040 aims to achieve a modal share of 15% for passenger rail transport and 20% for freight rail transport by 2040. In 2021, these percentages were still 8% and 12% respectively. In this study, we calculated the current and future energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of all vehicles on Belgian territory. We then evaluated different future scenarios for energy consumption and emissions with a view to achieving the modal split envisaged in the Rail Vision 2040.
The aim of this study was fivefold:
We achieved the targets with a scenario analysis. To calculate the scenarios, we used a number of models we developed ourselves: EMMOSS, our road traffic calculation and forecasting tool, and EMMOL.
Our calculations showed that rail is the most energy-efficient and climate-friendly mode of transport, both now and in each of the future scenarios. In addition, we showed that total energy consumption and GHG emissions from transport will decrease significantly in Belgium over the period 2019 to 2040. This is mainly due to the expected electrification of the vehicle fleet and an increasing share of the use of renewable fuels. The realisation of the Railway Vision reinforces this trend towards sustainability. Depending on the scenario worked out, we find that greenhouse gas emissions from non-ETS transport sectors fall by 75% for passenger transport and 77% for freight transport over the period 2019 to 2040.
However, the results in this study also show that real leverage for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions only occurs when transport demand falls. Although the strong modal shift from road to rail under the influence of the Railway Vision yields important climate and energy gains, this is insufficient to meet Belgium's emission reduction targets. What is needed is a change in behaviour that translates into a decrease in transport demand.
The Belgian Rail Vision 2040 aims to achieve a modal share of 15% for passenger rail transport and 20% for freight rail transport by 2040. In 2021, these percentages were still 8% and 12% respectively. In this study, we calculated the current and future energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of all vehicles on Belgian territory. We then evaluated different future scenarios for energy consumption and emissions with a view to achieving the modal split envisaged in the Rail Vision 2040.
The aim of this study was fivefold:
- To objectify current energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by means of transport in Belgium.
- To evaluate different future scenarios for energy consumption and CO2 equivalent emissions with a view to achieving the modal distribution foreseen in the Railway Vision 2040.
- Describing and evaluating the different risks and opportunities of these future scenarios.
- Describing other aspects around sustainable development arising from the realisation of the Railway Vision 2040.
- A comparison between the scenarios and Belgium's energy and climate targets.
We achieved the targets with a scenario analysis. To calculate the scenarios, we used a number of models we developed ourselves: EMMOSS, our road traffic calculation and forecasting tool, and EMMOL.
Our calculations showed that rail is the most energy-efficient and climate-friendly mode of transport, both now and in each of the future scenarios. In addition, we showed that total energy consumption and GHG emissions from transport will decrease significantly in Belgium over the period 2019 to 2040. This is mainly due to the expected electrification of the vehicle fleet and an increasing share of the use of renewable fuels. The realisation of the Railway Vision reinforces this trend towards sustainability. Depending on the scenario worked out, we find that greenhouse gas emissions from non-ETS transport sectors fall by 75% for passenger transport and 77% for freight transport over the period 2019 to 2040.
However, the results in this study also show that real leverage for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions only occurs when transport demand falls. Although the strong modal shift from road to rail under the influence of the Railway Vision yields important climate and energy gains, this is insufficient to meet Belgium's emission reduction targets. What is needed is a change in behaviour that translates into a decrease in transport demand.
