Alliance Goods Transport Model - elasticities study
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Within the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is investigating the linearity of price elasticities in BasGoed to assess whether the model more realistically predicts shifts between transport modes when costs change.
As part of the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is examining the price elasticities of BasGoed — a model used to analyse and forecast freight flows and rail transport demand.
Recent findings show that the model responds only weakly to price changes, particularly for inland waterways. In other words, BasGoed predicts little shift between transport modes when costs change — even though such shifts do occur in reality. That’s why Rijkswaterstaat is looking into whether the model’s price elasticities can be improved.
The research consists of five sub-studies, each aimed at understanding how specific modelling choices and techniques influence price sensitivity:
TML is contributing to the last of these, focusing on whether the model’s response to price changes follows a logical and consistent pattern.
As part of the Freight Transport Model Alliance, TML is examining the price elasticities of BasGoed — a model used to analyse and forecast freight flows and rail transport demand.
Recent findings show that the model responds only weakly to price changes, particularly for inland waterways. In other words, BasGoed predicts little shift between transport modes when costs change — even though such shifts do occur in reality. That’s why Rijkswaterstaat is looking into whether the model’s price elasticities can be improved.
The research consists of five sub-studies, each aimed at understanding how specific modelling choices and techniques influence price sensitivity:
- Reducing pivoting
- Applying scaling differently or not at all
- Assessing the impact of model dimensions and cost parameters
- Reviewing pivot rules
- Exploring the linearity of elasticities
TML is contributing to the last of these, focusing on whether the model’s response to price changes follows a logical and consistent pattern.
