Impact of electric vehicle growth on the electricity grid

From 2018 to 2019
The goal of this study is to project the potential grid impact and investment costs resulting from electric vehicle (EV) uptake in the market and assess the measures that can help reduce these costs. We base this study on granular spatial analysis of EV uptake, charging behaviour, and network headroom, considering the grid characteristics. In the context of the work, an EV working group consisting of delegates of the Synergrid Members and TML, coordinated by Baringa Partners, developed a common vision and detailed assumptions on EVs in Belgium, providing the foundations for this study. Between December 2018 and April 2019, the EV working group convened five times, to agree on the scope, methodology and assumptions of the study, and to review the initial findings. TML built a spatial EV uptake model, projecting EV uptake at a statistical sector level. Based on this data and the various assumptions agreed during the workshops, Baringa built the EV grid impact model and assessed the EV grid impact for different scenarios and mitigation strategies.

The role of TML was to primarily develop EV-uptake scenario’s on a country level in Belgium and secondary allocate EV uptake at a fine spatial level (statistical zones), relying on an econometric analysis, linking socio-economic properties (household income, urban vs. non-urban,…) to early or lagging EV-uptake. The latter is important as grid-impact requires electricity consumption from EV’s at a fine geographical resolution. 

Image:Estimated share of electric vehicles in the fleet in 2050, at the level of statistical area (i.e. even finer than municipality), for a scenario in which EVs have 90% of the market share in 2050.


From 2018 to 2019





Our team

Péter I. Pápics, Kris Vanherle
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