Carbon pricing in road transport
25127
From 2025 to 2026
This study clarifies how different carbon-related charges for road transport interact, with TML analysing the effective carbon price, gathering data on HDV charges, and assessing how much carbon is already included in road tolls.
Across Europe, road transport faces a growing mix of carbon charges, from fuel taxes to CO₂-based tolls, and – soon – the new emission trading system ETS2. For transport operators this creates confusion, and for policymakers it becomes harder to know whether the overall price signal is fair, consistent, and strong enough to support the shift to cleaner vehicles.
This study helps the European Commission bring clarity. It compares how Member States apply CO₂-differentiated tolls, how these interact with existing fuel taxes and future ETS2 costs, and what that means for the real carbon price paid on the road. The aim is to understand where policies reinforce each other, where they overlap, and where they may send mixed signals.
TML provides the core analysis. We develop a methodology to determine the effective carbon price, collect data on carbon-related charges for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), and assess to what extent carbon is already reflected in existing road tolls. We also perform a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis to determine whether the current carbon price is sufficient to stimulate the decarbonization of HDVs.
Across Europe, road transport faces a growing mix of carbon charges, from fuel taxes to CO₂-based tolls, and – soon – the new emission trading system ETS2. For transport operators this creates confusion, and for policymakers it becomes harder to know whether the overall price signal is fair, consistent, and strong enough to support the shift to cleaner vehicles.
This study helps the European Commission bring clarity. It compares how Member States apply CO₂-differentiated tolls, how these interact with existing fuel taxes and future ETS2 costs, and what that means for the real carbon price paid on the road. The aim is to understand where policies reinforce each other, where they overlap, and where they may send mixed signals.
TML provides the core analysis. We develop a methodology to determine the effective carbon price, collect data on carbon-related charges for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), and assess to what extent carbon is already reflected in existing road tolls. We also perform a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis to determine whether the current carbon price is sufficient to stimulate the decarbonization of HDVs.
