ACEA Modal Shift
25034
2025
This study reassessed the relevance of modal shift policies in a rapidly changing freight transport system shaped by new technologies. TML studied evidence-based, mode-neutral policy choices that focus on what works in practice and remains sustainable over time.
As zero-emission trucks become more common, it is time to reassess the role of modal shift policies in European freight transport. Rather than focusing on shifting freight between modes as a goal in itself, this study argues for a more balanced, data-driven and mode-neutral approach. Robust carbon pricing, well-targeted policies and smart investments are key to building a freight transport system that is sustainable, efficient and resilient across Europe.
Drawing on a combination of literature review, data analysis and interviews with transport experts, this study examines whether the traditional rationale behind EU modal shift policies still holds in a rapidly changing technological context. For decades, European transport policy has promoted a move away from road transport towards rail and inland waterways to improve sustainability. In practice, however, this has led to only limited changes in how freight is transported. Despite long-standing targets, regulations and investments, the expected shift in freight volumes has largely failed to materialise, raising questions about how effective these strategies really are today.
The team has come to several key findings:
Together with partner Panteia, the TML research team formulated the following policy recommendation: modal shift should not be treated as an end in itself. Instead, policy should focus on fairly pricing external costs across all transport modes and enabling market-driven choices that support both efficiency and sustainability.
As zero-emission trucks become more common, it is time to reassess the role of modal shift policies in European freight transport. Rather than focusing on shifting freight between modes as a goal in itself, this study argues for a more balanced, data-driven and mode-neutral approach. Robust carbon pricing, well-targeted policies and smart investments are key to building a freight transport system that is sustainable, efficient and resilient across Europe.
Drawing on a combination of literature review, data analysis and interviews with transport experts, this study examines whether the traditional rationale behind EU modal shift policies still holds in a rapidly changing technological context. For decades, European transport policy has promoted a move away from road transport towards rail and inland waterways to improve sustainability. In practice, however, this has led to only limited changes in how freight is transported. Despite long-standing targets, regulations and investments, the expected shift in freight volumes has largely failed to materialise, raising questions about how effective these strategies really are today.
The team has come to several key findings:
- Modal split trends: road freight continues to dominate, with rail and inland waterways losing modal share over the past three decades. While rail volumes have grown modestly, they have not kept pace with overall freight growth. Inland waterways have declined in both share and volume.
- Cost structures: capital costs are the dominant cost driver in rail, whereas personnel costs are the highest in road transport. Energy costs are the second most important for both modes. The transition of road freight to zero emission vehicles is expected to lower total cost of ownership (TCO), with lower energy costs moderating increased capital costs.
- External costs and sustainability: zero emission trucks will significantly reduce climate, air pollution, and noise externalities and thus close the environmental gap with rail.
- Infrastructure and policy effectiveness: European investments have strongly favoured rail infrastructure, but their impact is often limited by operational bottlenecks, a lack of terminals and weak cross-border coordination. Modal shift targets have frequently proven unrealistic and poorly aligned with market developments. Support schemes also tend to be complex and have seen limited uptake.
- Technological evolution: digitalisation, automation, and AI are reshaping freight transport. Zero emission trucks and autonomous driving will further enhance road competitiveness. Rail remains the most energy efficient mode, but must strive for system-level improvements, such as traffic management, digital integration, and service reliability to maintain its competitiveness.
Together with partner Panteia, the TML research team formulated the following policy recommendation: modal shift should not be treated as an end in itself. Instead, policy should focus on fairly pricing external costs across all transport modes and enabling market-driven choices that support both efficiency and sustainability.
