Impact of higher LPG market share

18024
2018
LPG, a mature and proven technology, can close the gap between the current situation with out-of-favour diesel and still-to-expensive electric vehicle and a future when electrification of transport will be truly competitive. LPG vehicles emit less NOx & PM than petrol and especially diesel cars and are cheaper over the full lifetime. Nevertheless, LPG continues to represent a marginal share in the total market. This study aims to present objective, model-based evidence of a credible and feasible scenario with a role for LPG as a transitional fuel between the current petrol/diesel focused energy vectors and future electro-mobility.
This study analyses the impact of higher LPG-uptake in the passenger car market for the world, with particular focus on EU28 member states. To this end, we used a system dynamic transport/fleet model, MOVEET, to understand how future market sales market shares of different propulsion technologies (as input) lead to market share in the active fleet and consequently costs and environmental impacts.
We calculated the impact of 6 scenario’s: a modest, medium and strong LPG uptake scenario’s, all vs. a low and high background scenario of the future uptake of electric vehicles. We found that LPG can achieve modest, but significant increases in the fleet share in 2030, when the EV-market share in the fleet is still limited, and that LPG plays a role up to 2050, displacing conventional diesel and gasoline cars more explicit in higher LPG-uptake scenarios.

Conclusion:
We concluded that LPG is a viable fuel/propulsion technology that can support air quality and climate change mitigation strategies in the short to medium term. LPG, as a proven and mature technology, can achieve significant emission savings in the timeframe 2020-2030 when electric vehicles market share will be low, and this even with limited cost savings for the consumer.

Period

2018

Client

Liquid Gas Europe, World LPG Association

Our team

Péter I. Pápics, Kris Vanherle
© 2019 Transport & Mobility Leuven | Westsite: Online Oplossingen en Webdesign

TML gebruikt cookies om uw surfervaring op deze website gemakkelijker te maken.

Ok, ik accepteer cookies