World Container Model (WCM)

The worldwide container model in brief

In order to be able to analyze possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon, a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale was developed at TNO in partnership with the University of Delft and TML. The challenge was to design, estimate and validate a model that combines a consistent description of worldwide trade flows, container flows and transportation services over a global scale, combined with a port and multimodal route choice model.

The multimodal route and port choice procedure is carried out using an improved logit choice model, that takes into account overlaps between alternative routes in the network. This improvement is particularly important for cases where routes are analyzed that compete against a bundle of existing routes (such as the trans-siberian railway). The model takes into account transport times, tariffs and time sensitivity of goods. It describes yearly container flows over the world’s shipping routes and through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container line services. Import, export and transhipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows are distinguished.

The model was calibrated against publicly available port throughput statistics. Scenario analyses done with the model included the effect of low speed shipping, increase of land based shipping costs, major infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Polar shipping routes. The model is being applied for the European Commission’s Trans European Networks programme and the Rotterdam Port Authority, to develop long term forecasts.

reports

The report is confidential

period

2010 - 2011

funded by

TNO

researchers

Kristof Carlier

partners

TNO

contact

Kristof Carlier

+32 16 31.77.36