Transport Sector Evolution 2050
Prospective study of transport evolution by 2050
A European energy provider asked TML to describe the transport situation by 2050, focussing on the evolution of the vehicle stocks, the demand, the energy consumption, and the emissions for this particular EU country. The work covered all passenger and freight transport modes.
Also, the impacts of policies as well as technological developments by 2050 were studied. This was based on several CO2 reduction scenario results produced by the TREMOVE model (for 2020), and carbon constrained and hydrogen scenarios from the POLES model as used in the WETO-H2 project (for 2050).
In the short term, by 2020, the strong growth of transport demand, especially for road and air, will neutralize the positive effect of technological measures on CO2 emissions.
In the long term, by 2050, uncertainty exists in terms of policy and technological trends which made it difficult to estimate the exact impact.
However, based on the POLES WETO-H2 study, growing reductions of CO2 emissions in the long term can be expected due to the application of a high carbon tax. The introduction of new technologies, such as hydrogen-based vehicles, will contribute to reducing CO2 emissions even more, but also lead to the accommodation of more transport and energy demand.
An energy provider of a EU member state (confidential)
Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Bruno Van Zeebroeck
Alloysius Joko Purwanto
+32 16 31.77.37