Employment 2025: How multiple transitions will affect the European labour market
The aim of the NEUJOBS project is to map the future of employment in Europe for the coming decades. The single intellectual framework used is that of a socio-ecological transition. This is defined as a drastic change in the operations of society towards a more sustainable use of human capital and natural resources.
The NEUJOBS project coordinates the efforts of an interdisciplinary consortium with 23 partners in 29 Work packages. TML was responsible for WP 15 concerning the effect of the socio-ecological transition on the transport sector. TML identified the following ‘megatrends in transport’:
- High fuel efficiency and electrification
- Switch from private transport to transport services
- Changes in logistic chains (a higher efficiency of freight logistics)
- Internalisation of external cost of transport (pricing policy and toll strategies)
After the proposed transport policies of eight EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, Finland, Bulgaria, Greece and Poland)were introduced into the EDIP computable general equilibrium model, we demonstrated that a combination of these policies can reduce emissions of overall greenhouse gases and related pollutants by 1% – 8% compared to the status quo. This was mainly caused by a 50% reduction in emissions from private transport. At the same time, small net benefits in terms of employment are created. All the modelled countries show net job creation.
After applying similar policies to develop job-multipliers of transport policies, we can conclude that there is a big difference in potential job creation between the richer and more developed western and northern EU countries, southern EU countries (Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Italy) and eastern EU countries. This is due to the relative labour intensity of the economy, wage rates and current unemployment rates. In effect, job creation via energy policies is more effective in the developing EU economies. Energy efficiency improvements and transport subsidies deliver about three times more jobs per million euro in the Eastern European countries.
Comparing a similar set of applied transport policies on the urban level, we see that the policies that are most likely to achieve the joint goal of increasing sustainability as well as creating jobs are those that promote bicycling, public transit, and energy efficiency. To allow cities more control over urban traffic, we advise the establishment of road-charging zones or, alternatively, Low Emission Zones. Not only does this give cities a flexible tool for redirecting traffic flows; congestion charges provide the city with revenues that can be used for improving public transit or can be redistributed for other social needs.
See project website: www.neujobs.eu
The published reports can be found here: http://www.neujobs.eu/research-fields/transport-socio-ecological-transition or just click on these links to see the deliverables where TML contributed:
D15.1: The main socio-ecological transitions facing the transport sector
D15.2: Effects of the main global scenarios on the transport sector
D15.3: Sustainable urban transport strategies and job creation
European Commission, FP7
Christophe Heyndrickx, Joko Alloysius Purwanto, Rodric Frederix
Centre for European Policy Studies, University of Birmingham, Centrum Analiz Spoleczno-Ekonomicznychfundacja Naukowa, Kozep-Europai Eyetem, Technische Universiteit Delft, Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Seureco Société Européenne d'‰conomie, Economic and Social Research Institute, Institut Syndical Européen, Europrism Research Centre, Fundacja Naukowa Instytut Badan Strukturalnych, Universitaet Klagenfurt, Insitut fuer hoehere Studien und wissenschaftliche Forschung, Institut fuer die Wissenschaften vom Menschen, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Universiteit Leiden, London School of Economics and Political Science, Luiss Libera Universita Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli, Universitaet Mannheim, Masarykova Universita, Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen, Roskilde Universitet, Ekonomicky Ustav Slovenskey Akademie Vied, Institut pre Dobre Spravovanu Spolocnost, the Conference Board Europe, University of the West of Scotland, Vereniging voor Christelijk Hoger Onderwijs Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek en Patientenzorg, Observatoire Social Européen
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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 266833