MIRA-S 2009

Evolution of emissions of inland waterways, rail, air and maritime transport

Whereas MIRA-T and MIRA-BE analyse mainly the existing situation, MIRA-S - with an 's' of scenario - glances ahead on the environment of tomorrow. How can our environment look like in the future and what is the possible impact of an unaltered or modified environmental policy? This question is at issue in MIRA-S. By means of scenarios, the report gives an idea on how society evolves and what the consequent environmental impacts are. However: these scenarios are no future forecasts, they only show possible visions of the future.

TML investigated evolutions of emissions for the transport sectors inland waterways, maritime, rail and air in a reference scenario, a policy scenario (Europa scenario) and a visionary scenario:

  • When continuing the current policy (the reference scenario) the emissions of greenhouse gasses by transport keep on rising until 2020.
  • A more forward policy (the Europe scenario) with technological adjustments and road charging will bend this trend.
  • The visionary scenario highlights the use of electric vehicles and green energy supply. In this scenario, greenhouse gas emissions of transport will reduce with about 40% by 2050. Hence, this scenario does not achieve in attaining the indicative objective of a reduction of about 60 to 80%. It also does not succeed in reaching the European target with respect to renewable energy by 2020. In order to achieve this target, an increased use of bio fuels within transport is needed. In the long term, the use of electric vehicles, using green energy, could be a solution.


The scientific report: 'Transport, Referentie- en Europa-scenario' (in Dutch)

The scientific report: 'Transport, Visionair scenario' (in Dutch)

A short version was included as Chapter 6 Transport of the Flanders Environment Outlook 2030:



funded by

Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (VMM)


Kris Vanherle, Eef Delhaye, Bruno Van Zeebroeck 


Kris Vanherle

+32 16 74.51.29
reference: 08.17