Integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030
The TRANS-TOOLS model is developed to be the core detailed network
analysis tool for transport in the EU. Its policy forecasting
capabilities can be significantly enhanced by linking it with
state-of-the-art tools in the field of energy, environment and economic
analysis. iTREN-2030 builds this linkage from TRANS-TOOLS to the
following state-of-the-art tools: POLES for energy technology and energy
prices, TREMOVE for environmental assessment and vehicle fleet
development, and ASTRA for provision of the economic repercussions
exerted by the sectoral policies.
The main outcome of iTREN-2030 is twofold:
- Scenario forecasts for 2030 covering transport, energy, environment and economy.
- Model suit formed by four models, linked to each other, with a harmonised baseline and consistent reactions.
Two scenarios are produced by the project as first outcome:
- The first scenario, Reference, is the scenario that is reflected by each of the four tools. This scenario is not intending to provide forecasts of the most likely future and is built on the assumption of “frozen” policy as of 2008 i.e. only policies are included that are decided by EU Council or EU parliament until mid 2008. The Reference scenario integrates and harmonizes technological developments on the energy and transport side, energy prices and economic trends with demand for energy and transport and their environmental impacts.
- The second scenario is the Integrated scenario which is built based on the Reference. This scenario includes energy and transport policies/measures that will be taken between 2008/2009 and 2025. The policies should be “relevant” and “likely”. The policies reflect the pressures and opportunities coming from the three major policy drivers of the next two decades: climate policy, fossil fuel scarcity, and new technologies. Other different to the Reference scenario is the inclusion of the “economic crisis of 2008/2009” in the Integrated scenario.
The second outcome, the model suit formed by four models (TRANS-TOOLS, ASTRA, TREMOVE, and POLES) is in fact the main methodology used to produce scenarios. This methodology generates obvious added-value for the integrated analysis of energy and transport systems and initiatives in these fields.
All deliverables have been approved and are available on the iTREN-2030 official website:
D6: Final report
European Commission, 6th Framework Programme
Bart Van Herbruggen, Kris Vanherle, Alloysius Joko Purwanto
Fraunhofer ISI (project leader, Germany), TNO (The Netherlands), NEA Transport Research and Training (The Netherlands), University of Karlsruhe - IWW (Germany), TRT (Italy), IPTS (Spain)
Alloysius Joko Purwanto
+32 16 31.77.37
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Sixth Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 044260