IceWin
Economic effects of oil transport interruptions from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea
The ice cover of the Baltic Sea Motorway varies considerably from year to year. Hard ice conditions markedly influence traffic conditions. Even at current transport levels, the current icebreaker fleet available in the Baltic Sea is incapable of providing a satisfactory level of service in a hard ice winter. At the same time export, especially oil transports from Russia to other parts of Europe, is growing.
The objective of the IceWin project is to find out what benefits can be attained in the level of service of icebreaking assistance, in logistics and especially in oil transport, and with regard to environmental emissions and risks, by
- adopting innovative concepts and operations, and/or
- utilizing a new kind of agreement system
under average and hard ice winter conditions in the face of current and growing traffic volumes.
The role of TML in this project is to analyse the effect of a hard ice winter in case where icebreaking resources are insufficient. The focus lies on interruptions and breakdowns of oil transports departing from Russian ports to other European ports. What is the effect on
- availability of oil from other sources
- price level
- consumption
- production activities (dependent upon oil)
if oil transports are subjected to interruptions for 2 weeks, 1 month, 2 months?
The methodology for this analysis will be based on the existing general equilibrium model EDIP. EDIP is the European economic- energy- environment- equity model developed by TML during the REFIT project.
reports
no report available yet
period
2009-2011
funded by
European Commission, FP7
partners
VTT (FI) - (Coordinator), Hama Investeeringud (EST), Aker Arctic Technology (FI)
researchers
Eef Delhaye, Karel Spitaels
contact
Eef Delhaye
+32 16 74.51.22