Electrification Status of Passenger Cars
Assessing the status of electrification of passenger cars and potential future implications for the environment and the European energy system
Together with Íko Institut, and TNO, TML assisted EEA assessing the current status of electrification of passenger cars, as well as its potential future implications for the environment and the European energy system towards 2050.
TML in particular has participated in collecting and analysing data on Member States' strategies to promote EV penetration, and in simulating the effects of the different future EV penetration scenarios on energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and air pollution.
Three future scenarios have been elaborated:
- A reference scenario where EV penetration at EU28 level will follow the EU reference scenario based on Capros et al., 2013, i.e. 4% of the total passenger car stock in 2013 and 8% in 2050
- A 'mid' scenario where we assume that EV penetration will reach 20% in 2030 and 50% in 2050
- A 'high' scenario where we assume that EV penetration will reach 30% in 2030 and 80% in 2050
TML analysed the transport sector using the MOVEET model and Íko Institut analysed the power system. We can conclude that additional electricity generation will be required in the European Union to meet the extra energy demand arising from an 80% share of electric vehicles in 2050 ('high' scenario). The share of Europe's total electricity consumption from electric vehicles will increase from approximately 0.03% in 2014 to about 4-5% by 2030 and 9.5% b y 2050.
An increase in electric vehicle use will result in:
- Lower CO2 and air pollutant emissions from the road transport sector itself
- Higher emissions from associated electricity production
- An overall net benefit in terms of lower CO2 and the air pollutants, i.e. NOx and PM
- An overall increase in SO2 due to emissions from the electricity generating sector
The potential of renewable energy sources to power electric vehicles can then play an important role in the EU plans to move towards a decarbonized transport system and to meet its goal to reduce GHG emission by 80-95% by 2050.
- Non-technical guide ‘Electric vehicles in Europe’ http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/electric-vehicles-in-europe (task1)
- Short briefing summarizing the potential impacts of further EV uptake http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/electric-vehicles/electric-vehicles-and-energy (task2)
- The full report underpinning the EEA briefing: http://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/Assessing-the-status-of-electrification-of-the-road-transport-passenger-vehicles.pdf (task 2)
Íko Institut, TNO
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