Effects of climate change on inland waterways and inland shipping competitiveness
ECCONET, an EC FP7 project for DG MOVE which ran for a 3-year period from 2010-2012, specifically addressed the topic of adaptation to climate change, taking Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) as a case-study. The project covered both the impact of climate change on inland waterways as well as the study of adaptation measures.
In its analysis of climate change impacts, ECCONET focused on a detailed
study of climate models and their input to hydrology. Unlike other related
climate change impact projects, ECCONET derived its results from a large
spectrum of climate scenarios and not from one specific extreme scenario.
This results in a balanced view on the future navigability of the Rhine-Main-Danube
waterway area. Performing a transport economic analysis on the basis
of the predicted evolution of navigability, we demonstrated that the
possible climate changes from 2005 to 2050 and their impact on the Rhine
market, as modelled by two long term dry and wet scenarios, are not
likely to be strong enough to trigger any significant shift in modal
shares away from inland waterway transportation. In fact, it is more
likely that the impact of transport-economic background conditions,
such as the price of fuel, will outweigh the impact of climate change.
For the longer term (up to 2100), climate change could affect transport
conditions more significantly. Due to the limited value of economic
projections so far into the future, however, no assessment was made.
In parallel, ECCONET aimed to identify a number of adaptation measures. These fell broadly into 4 classes: technology and operational measures, infrastructure and maintenance, production and logistics processes, and improved water level forecasting. These adaptation measures were verified by a combination of literature review, transport economic modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and stakeholder consultation.
- In the class of ship- and operations- related measures, the most promising measures involve weight reduction technologies and the use of coupled convoys (especially on the River Rhine). More experimental approaches exist, such as the use of adjustable tunnels, flat hulls (for towboats) and inflatable aprons, but their benefit in terms of the expected climate change could not be proven. Flexible 24-hour operation of ships that are currently only operating for 12 hours was not beneficial, due to high labour costs.
- In terms of infrastructure measures we can conclude that large infrastructural works are not justified with respect to climate change. This is caused by the large investment costs and the limited benefit of such projects until 2050. Even under current conditions, however, there is a strong need for improved maintenance of the waterways, especially on the Danube.
- Improved forecasting, for example in the form of a seasonal forecast of water levels, is the responsibility of governmental agencies. While a reliable forecast of this type is very hard to make, any improvement in this type of forecasting is considered very valuable to the sector.
- As for the change of production processes and stock keeping, we found that the forwarder/shipper will usually wait out a dry period, or use presently available storage capacity. If problems persist, the shipper will consider using another mode of transport, generally railway freight, which is a more costly and inflexible solution. Investment in stock keeping and relocation is only considered as a last resort.
While the expected climate change impact until the middle of the century does not justify large investments in costly adaptation measures under the navigability conditions predicted at present, we do stress the importance of good waterway maintenance for a smooth continuation of waterway transport on the Rhine and Danube rivers. Furthermore, we question the trend towards increasingly large vessels on the Rhine, as the benefit of increased carrying capacity may disappear under drier conditions. We point to the various technical and operational measures under development, which may, while not being cost-effective today, reduce the vulnerability of inland shipping to the natural variation in weather conditions in the near future. We also point to the limitations of our study, as results indicate that beyond 2050 the effects of climate change may intensify. In conclusion, there is a need to constantly monitor the state of the rivers, and further research is encouraged.
See project website: www.ecconet.eu
D1.1 Selected navigation routes
and present climate conditions
D1.2 Definition of climate change scenarios
D1.4 Impact of hydrological change on navigation conditions
D1.5 Consolidated work package report
D2.1.1 Overview on IWT and transport related strategies
D2.1.2 Overview on infrastructure measures and discharge scenarios
D2.1.3 Improved prediction methods for medium term and seasonal water level forecast
D2.1.4 Adaptation of production processes and storekeeping
D2.2.1 Overview of feasible/suitable adaptation strategies
D2.2.2 Assessment of adaptation strategies
D3.1 Description of data used and calibrated cost-functions of NODUS
D3.2 Transport economic background used for reference scenario
D3.3 Transport flows on the IWT network under climate change conditions
D3.4 Transport flows on the IWT network, given adaptation strategies
D4.1 Literature review of past projects and studies
D4.2 Cost-effectiveness analysis of adaptation measures
D5.1 Long term vision, development plan for IWT and contribution to PLATINA
European Commission, FP7
via donau (Austria), VU-FEWEB (The Netherlands), NEA Transport Research and Training (The Netherlands), FUCaM, BfG (Germany), VITUKI (Hungary), OMSZ (Hungary), DST (Germany), KNMI (The Netherlands)
Christophe Heyndrickx, Tim Breemersch, Veerle Vranckx, Ignacio Hidalgo González, Kris Vanherle, Eef Delhaye
+32 16 74.51.21