Mobility, vehicle fleet, energy use and emissions forecast tool for Europe version 2.0 development
MOVEET is a System Dynamic based analytical tool that addresses the policy problems related to transport and climate change. The tool is capable of estimating transport demand, fleet evolution and emissions, as well as forecasting the impacts of policy and technological measures in transport-related sectors, covering all transport modes from the different regions in the world up to 2050. The model consists of 57 regions, many of them representing single countries, i.e. all the European countries and other world major economies.
After almost five years applying the model in the different projects, updates are necessary to assure reliable forecasting results in the incoming years. These updates are twofold.
First, we will update the road transport mode data stock. The first phase of MOVEET development finished in 2011 and most of the vehicle stock data of the tool contains only historical yearly data up to 2005. Vehicle stock updates will mainly cover the split between conventional vehicle propulsion technologies (diesel and petrol internal combustion engines) and the new &/ alternative vehicle propulsion technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), (extended range) electric vehicles ((ER)EV), and so on.
Second, the modelling of fleet emissions is essentially based on information or assumptions concerning the technology of the vehicles in the fleet. In general, vehicle technology correlates with the vehicle’s age (e.g. emission class). Alongside the sales of new, the fleet age distribution is influenced by other cars entering the fleet and exiting it (either through used vehicle exports or end-of-life). MOVEET will incorporate information on used (second hand) vehicles entering the fleet as a major improvement step in this project. Taking into account the second hand market shall lead to a more precise emission calculation results especially in the regions or countries where the used car market share is important and thus upgrade MOVEET beyond the state-of-the-art.
Finally, we will set up a data service for the input and output tables of MOVEET. As we are often confronted with administrations and private companies asking us to identify future issues and opportunities, the need for dedicated data analyses becomes more prominent. This is not only the case when looking at the micro level of mobility (dealing mostly with driver behaviour) but also when looking at the meso- and macro levels (namely trip planning and long-term mobility planning, respectively). The objectives of these types of data service projects make it necessary to manipulate data in such a way that a proper understanding of the underlying structures within the data emerges. Given that we are ever more confronted with paywalls to find online data for data similar to what we have been providing with the TREMOVE model database, we see value for users in providing data services based on MOVEET database.
no report available yet
10-15 July 2016, Joko Purwanto gave a
Mobility, vehicle fleet, energy use and emissions forecast tool (paper) at the 14th World Conference on
Transport Research, Shanghai, China
VLAIO (KMO Innovatie)
Joko Alloysius Purwanto
+32 16 31.77.37