Freight modelling: WCM en NODUS
World Container Model (WCM)
In order to be able to analyze possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon, a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale was developed at TNO in partnership with the University of Delft and TML. The model excels at combining a consistent description of worldwide trade flows, container flows and transportation services over a global scale, combined with a port and multimodal route choice model.
The multimodal route and port choice procedure is carried out using an improved logit choice model, that takes into account overlaps between alternative routes in the network. The model takes into account transport times, tariffs and time sensitivity of goods. It describes yearly container flows over the world’s shipping routes and through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container line services. Import, export and transshipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows are distinguished.
The model was calibrated against all available port throughput statistics. Scenario analyses done with the model included the effect of low speed shipping, increase of land based shipping costs, major infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Polar shipping routes. The model is being applied for the European Commission’s Trans European Networks programme and the Rotterdam Port Authority, to develop long term forecasts.
Presentations about WCM:
- Kristof Carlier (TML): The World Container Model
- Arjen van Diepen (TU Delft, Netherlands): Predicting effects of global long term scenarios on container throughput of the Port of Rotterdam
NODUS
The University of Mons (FUCAM) has developed NODUS, a GIS-system
to model freight flows in Europe. NODUS is used for, among others, analysing
strategic transport, socio-economic studies for new infrastructure or
impact analyses of new tax/toll schemes. The software was launched for
the first time in 1991 and has ever since been upgraded and applied
in several European research projects and in supporting the Walloon
policy on multimodal freight transport. Recently NODUS has been used
for achieving a plan for an integrated development of freight networks
and terminals in the Walloon Region and for the socio-economic analysis
of the mega-project ‘Seine-Nord’, connecting the north of France with
the Paris basin.
The WCM focuses on modeling global freight flows, whereas NODUS is more
oriented on modeling freight transport within Europe, emphasizing mode
choice and multimodal chains. When appropriate, both models can be used
in combination. In that case WCM calculates the global freight transport
from/until the European harbors and NODUS performs a detailed, multimodal
assignment of the freight transport within Europe.
Transport & Mobility Leuven’s model experts are active both in applying
the model as in continuously improving and upgrading both freight transport
models.
recent projects
| Trade facilitation impact | Improving the efficiency of importing and exporting containers by using an advanced electronic system |
| World Container Model (WCM) | The worldwide container model in brief |
| Evaluation Trans-Siberian railway | Business case for new Trans-Siberian railway corridor services |